Climate Change and Pastoralist Conflict in the Sahel: Mali’s Dogon–Fulani Violence (2018–2025)

Abstract

This study investigates the intricate relationship between climate change and pastoralist–farmer conflict in Mali’s Dogon–Fulani communities within the wider Sahel region. The problem addressed stems from the increasing environmental pressures (such as drought, desertification, and erratic rainfall) that intensify resource competition amid fragile governance and deep-seated ethnic tensions. The study’s objectives were to examine how climate change contributes to these conflicts, identify key conflict drivers, and propose strategies to mitigate their impacts. Using a qualitative content analysis approach, 56 peer-reviewed articles published between 2014 and 2024 were purposively selected from the Google Scholar database. Data were thematically analysed under three categories: environmental pressures, institutional responses, and conflict transformation mechanisms. The findings reveal that environmental degradation acts as a conflict catalyst only where weak governance and social exclusion prevail. Statistics from the region indicate that mean annual temperatures have increased significantly since the 1960s, while rainfall in the Sahel has become increasingly erratic, leading to a 40% loss of livestock in past extreme drought cycles and displacing hundreds of thousands in central Mali. Yet, communities that maintain inclusive local mediation structures experience fewer violent clashes. The study concludes that sustainable peace in the Sahel depends on integrating environmental resilience with effective governance. It recommends strengthening the rule of law, enhancing state capacity, adopting climate-smart and technology-driven agricultural practices, and transitioning to modern ranching systems to reduce farmer–herder competition and build long-term regional stability.